India’s international air passenger traffic appears to have finally shrugged off the COVID-19 baggage, achieving pre-pandemic levels in the first half (H1) of the current financial year. The number of total international flyers travelling from and to India was 3.14 crore in April-September, a tad higher than 3.13 crore passengers in the corresponding six months of 2019–the last full half-year period of regular operations before the pandemic froze the aviation industry–shows an analysis of data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA).
Since early 2022, even as the international air travel to and from India was on a path of healthy recovery, it lagged the rapid pace of normalisation in domestic passenger traffic. In H1 of 2022-23 (FY23), the cumulative international passenger count to and from India was 2.47 crore, around 21 per cent lower than the corresponding period of FY20.
Interestingly, the return to pre-pandemic passenger traffic has been accompanied by a notable shift in India’s international aviation landscape with a jump in the cumulative market share (by passengers carried) of Indian carriers vis-à-vis foreign airlines, the DGCA data shows. Although foreign airlines still account for a majority of passenger traffic flying into and out of India, the cumulative market share of domestic carriers registered a nearly 9-percentage-point jump in market share from 2019 levels.
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The combined market share of Indian carriers by passengers carried on international flights was 44.3 per cent in April-September this year, up from 35.4 per cent in the corresponding period of 2019, and 43.7 per cent in H1 of FY23. Of the total of 3.14 crore commuters who flew into or out of India in H1 of the current financial year, Indian airlines carried 1.39 crore passengers.
Leading this expansion in market share, primarily, are IndiGo and Vistara. Air India, which was under government control in 2019 and is now part of the Tata group, also registered an increase in international market share.
On the other hand, financially-stressed SpiceJet registered a contraction in international market share. Go First’s market share crashed as the Wadia group carrier suspended operations from early May as it filed for bankruptcy. Air India’s no-frills arm Air India Express saw a marginal decline in market share.
Market share data for the April-September periods of FY21 and FY22 have not been considered as regular international flights had not resumed at the time and bilateral air bubble arrangements were in place.
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According to industry watchers, fuelling this surge in international market share are: network expansion and higher capacities deployed on international routes by carriers like IndiGo, Vistara, and Air India, slower recovery in capacity deployment by some foreign carriers, and reduction in flights by various North American airlines to avoid Russian airspace due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Market leader IndiGo’s share surged to 17.8 per cent in April-September of FY24 from 10.3 per cent four years back, and 15.7 per cent a year ago.
Vistara’s market share rose to 3.2 per cent in H1 FY24 from 0.1 per cent in the corresponding period of FY20. It is worth noting that the airline had launched international flights in the July-September quarter of FY20, which explains the extremely low base. In April-September of last year, Vistara’s international market share was 1.9 per cent.
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Air India’s international market share expanded to 12.6 per cent in H1 of the current financial year from 11.4 per cent four years ago, and 12.2 per cent a year back. Air India Express, however, regsitered a market share of 7.7 per cent in the six months ended September 2023, against 7.8 per cent in the corresponding period of FY20, and 8 per cent in H1 of the last financial year.
In all, the three Tata group airlines–Air India, Air India Express, and Vistara–had a combined market share of 23.5 per cent in terms of international passengers ferried in H1 FY24, higher than that of IndiGo.
In April-September of this year, the embattled SpiceJet’s market share contracted to 2.6 per cent from 4.3 per cent four years ago, and 3.6 per cent a year ago. Go First, which has not taken to the skies since early May, had a market share of 1.3 per cent in H1 FY20 and 2.3 per cent in the April-September of last year. In the first half of the current financial year, the airline ferried just 90,940 passengers on its international flights (almost entirely in April), accounting for merely 0.3 per cent of India’s overall international passenger count for the six-month period.